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While US is gearing up to reopen its businesses and other entertainment zones gradually to stabilise the economy, the country is about to face an even worse condition. Studies suggest that the coronavirus is going to be inescapable for the coming 12 to 24 months in US.
The study has been conducted by the researchers from the Minnesota-based Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) saying that the Covid-19 virus will last for 18-24 months. The same was even more emphasised saying that only 5-15% of the US population has been infected by the virus at this point.
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in US has crossed 1 million with over 63,000 deaths reported. The reports are from the data revealed by the John Hopkins University.
The report, titled “The future of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned from pandemic influenza”, the researchers have given a vivid picture of the pandemic and how this virus is a lot more different that the past influenza pandemics that have happened.
“States, territories, and tribal health authorities should plan for the worst-case scenario (which involves a large second peak of cases in the fall of 2020), including no vaccine availability or herd immunity,” the report suggested.
The report also emphasised the need for the government agencies and the healthcare delivery organisations to further develop strategies that allows maximum protection for all the healthcare workers in case the disease further takes a complete U-turn.
As per the recommendations, it suggested that the government officials should develop concrete plans and further work on the mitigation measures for dealing when the peak arrives.
The risk communication from the authorities need to emphasise the fact that this pandemic is not going to be over soon and people do need to be careful and be prepared for the term of resurgence in the coming two years.
The researchers reported that no one, at this point, is sure how this virus will leave or behave. But, on the basis of the reports and such, it is likely that the virus is here to stay for the coming few years.
According to the first scenario, the first wave of Covid-19, that we are experiencing now, will be followed by a series of repetitive smaller waves through the expanse of the summer and then throughout the coming one or two years. It is then likely going to diminish in 2021.
"This pattern will require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. This pattern is similar to what was seen with the 1918-19 pandemic," the report suggested.
For the third case scenario, the first wave of the Covid-19 that happened during the spring 2020 will later be followed by a slow burn of the ongoing transmission and a possible reoccurrence of the cases.
The researchers clarified that the same can vary geographically and can be influenced by the mitigation steps that are being taken in several areas across the world.
Irrespective of which phase or scenario the pandemic follows, it is extremely important for the government and the citizens to stay alert and take precautions for the coming 18 to 24 months for the covid-19 activity.
With the pandemic waves, the researchers believe that the novel coronavirus will circulate in the human population and then synchronize on the basis of seasonal patterns. The report warned that lifting of restrictions is not permission for people to just get back to their normal lives without any precautions.
By Somapika Dutta
